Aaron RodgersorC.J. Stroud?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Aaron Rodgers in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Rodgers comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean C.J. Stroud, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. C.J. Stroud projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: C.J. Stroud faces the Tennessee Titans (5% more than average to QBs), Aaron Rodgers faces the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.0
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.5 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 16.5 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 16.5 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB13 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 17.1 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 14.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |