C.J. StroudorDrake Maye?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Drake Maye in 59% of simulations.
Drake Maye still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 2.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.1
- Median
- 16.2
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 9.0
- Median
- 14.2
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 17.1 | 14.7 |
| Standard projection | 17.1 | 14.6 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB18 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 7.2 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 20.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 81% |
| Trade value | — | — |