Jalen HurtsorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts outscores Sam Darnold in 59% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Jalen Hurts is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jalen Hurts projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Jalen Hurts faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (7% fewer than average to QBs), Sam Darnold faces the San Francisco 49ers (2% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.0
- Ceiling
- 26.0
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.9 | 15.3 |
| PPR projection | 16.9 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 16.9 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.8 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 18.8 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 3 | — |