C.J. StroudorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Sam Darnold in 57% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: C.J. Stroud faces the Tennessee Titans (5% more than average to QBs), Sam Darnold faces the San Francisco 49ers (2% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 27%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 15.3 |
| PPR projection | 16.5 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at TEN | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.1 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |