Geno SmithorJoe Burrow?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Geno Smith in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Geno Smith comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Joe Burrow, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Joe Burrow projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (12% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs). Joe Burrow still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 25.0
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.5 | 16.2 |
| PPR projection | 15.5 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 15.5 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | QB18 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.0 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |