Daniel JonesorJoe Burrow?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Daniel Jones in 83% of simulations.
Daniel Jones comes out ahead in the other 17%. Joe Burrow projects 9.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Daniel Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (11% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (5% fewer than average to QBs). Joe Burrow still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 12.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 49%
- Floor
- 11.9
- Median
- 21.2
- Ceiling
- 33.8
- Big game (25+):
- 33%
- Dud (under 12):
- 11%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Daniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.8 | 22.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.8 | 22.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.8 | 22.5 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.1 | 24.9 |
| Last season per game | 17.4 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 56 |