Jared GofforSam Darnold?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jared Goff
Jared Goff outscores Sam Darnold in 56% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jared Goff is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jared Goff projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Sam Darnold has the better matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders (12% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the New England Patriots (2% fewer than average to QBs). Jared Goff still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 26.2
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 28%
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 25.8
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.6 | 15.4 |
| PPR projection | 16.6 | 15.4 |
| Standard projection | 16.6 | 15.4 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB14 |
| Matchup | vs NE | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.4 | 13.2 |
| Last season per game | 17.5 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |