Jacoby BrissettorJoe Burrow?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jacoby Brissett
Jacoby Brissett outscores Joe Burrow in 55% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Jacoby Brissett is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jacoby Brissett projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jacoby Brissett has the better matchup against the New York Giants (8% more than average to QBs); Joe Burrow faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 16.2
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 12):
- 28%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 15.2
- Ceiling
- 25.0
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.3 | 16.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.3 | 16.2 |
| Standard projection | 17.3 | 16.2 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at NYG | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.2 | 17.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.2 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |