C.J. StroudorJalen Hurts?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts outscores C.J. Stroud in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: C.J. Stroud comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Jalen Hurts, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jalen Hurts projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Jalen Hurts faces the Los Angeles Rams (7% fewer than average to QBs). Jalen Hurts still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

C.J. Stroud
Floor
9.1
Median
16.2
Ceiling
26.4
Big game (25+):
13%
Dud (under 12):
25%
Jalen Hurts
Floor
9.3
Median
16.3
Ceiling
26.7
Big game (25+):
14%
Dud (under 12):
23%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatC.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJalen HurtsQB, PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection17.117.3
PPR projection17.117.3
Standard projection17.117.3
Rank this weekQB15QB14
Matchupvs DALvs LAR
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game15.117.8
Last season per game14.918.8
Snap share, last game100%92%
Trade value—4