Baker MayfieldorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Penix Jr. comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Baker Mayfield, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Baker Mayfield projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (7% more than average to QBs); Baker Mayfield faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (1% fewer than average to QBs). Baker Mayfield still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 22.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.3 | 14.1 |
| PPR projection | 14.3 | 14.1 |
| Standard projection | 14.3 | 14.1 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 95% |
| Trade value | — | — |