C.J. StroudorKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Kyler Murray in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Kyler Murray comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean C.J. Stroud, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. C.J. Stroud projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. C.J. Stroud has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (41% more than average to QBs); Kyler Murray faces the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.1
- Median
- 16.2
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.1 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.1 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 17.1 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB19 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.1 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |