Matthew StaffordorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 56% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Matthew Stafford is the better bet, not a sure thing. Matthew Stafford projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2% more than average to QBs); Matthew Stafford faces the Los Angeles Chargers (20% fewer than average to QBs). Matthew Stafford still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 16.0
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 14.7
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Matthew StaffordQB, LAR, Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.8 | 15.7 |
| PPR projection | 16.8 | 15.7 |
| Standard projection | 16.8 | 15.7 |
| Rank this week | QB11 | QB15 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.6 | 16.9 |
| Last season per game | 20.6 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 13 | — |