Kirk CousinsorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. outscores Kirk Cousins in 56% of simulations.
Kirk Cousins still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Michael Penix Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Penix Jr. projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs); Kirk Cousins faces the Kansas City Chiefs (19% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 11.0
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 57%
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.8
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kirk CousinsQB, LV, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.1 | 12.7 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 12.7 |
| Standard projection | 12.1 | 12.7 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB22 |
| Matchup | vs KC | at NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.7 | 14.0 |
| Last season per game | 10.4 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |