Michael Penix Jr.orSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 56% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Sam Darnold is the better bet, not a sure thing. Sam Darnold projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs), Michael Penix Jr. faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.8
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 20.7
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 14.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 12.7 | 14.5 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.0 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 13.4 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |