Baker MayfieldorJoe Milton III?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Baker Mayfield
Baker Mayfield outscores Joe Milton III in 98% of simulations.
Joe Milton III comes out ahead in the other 2%. Baker Mayfield projects 9.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Baker Mayfield faces the Chicago Bears (13% more than average to QBs), Joe Milton III faces the New York Giants (15% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 51%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.3
- Ceiling
- 5.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Joe Milton IIIQB, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 2.8 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 2.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.7 | 2.8 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB24 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.6 | — |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 2.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |