Joe Milton IIIorJustin Herbert?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Joe Milton III in 98% of simulations.
Joe Milton III comes out ahead in the other 2%. Justin Herbert projects 9.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Joe Milton III has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to QBs); Justin Herbert faces the Houston Texans (7% fewer than average to QBs). Justin Herbert still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.3
- Ceiling
- 5.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 6.3
- Median
- 11.7
- Ceiling
- 19.4
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe Milton IIIQB, PHI, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.8 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 2.8 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 2.8 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs NYG | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | — | 10.0 |
| Last season per game | 2.6 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | — | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |