Baker MayfieldorTyler Shough?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough outscores Baker Mayfield in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Baker Mayfield comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Tyler Shough, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Shough projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Tyler Shough has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to QBs); Baker Mayfield faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (1% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.9
- Median
- 13.4
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 6.8
- Median
- 14.6
- Ceiling
- 26.7
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 14.3 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs PIT | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.7 | 17.0 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 94% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |