Michael Penix Jr.orTyler Shough?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 56% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Tyler Shough is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tyler Shough projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (5% more than average to QBs); Tyler Shough faces the Minnesota Vikings (34% fewer than average to QBs). Tyler Shough still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 45%
- Floor
- 7.7
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Tyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.8 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 14.7 |
| Standard projection | 13.8 | 14.7 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB20 |
| Matchup | vs BAL | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.3 | 21.3 |
| Last season per game | 13.4 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |