Caleb WilliamsorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Penix Jr. comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Seattle Seahawks (25% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.1
- Median
- 15.6
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 8.0
- Median
- 14.7
- Ceiling
- 24.7
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Mon, Nov 2, 8:15 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 15.7 |
| PPR projection | 16.5 | 15.7 |
| Standard projection | 16.5 | 15.7 |
| Rank this week | QB11 | QB14 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.9 | 16.9 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 15 | — |