Jordan LoveorLamar Jackson?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Lamar Jackson

Lamar Jackson outscores Jordan Love in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jordan Love comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Lamar Jackson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Lamar Jackson projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jordan Love has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% more than average to QBs); Lamar Jackson faces the Tennessee Titans (2% more than average to QBs). Lamar Jackson still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Jordan Love
Floor
8.9
Median
16.6
Ceiling
27.9
Big game (25+):
15%
Dud (under 12):
24%
Lamar Jackson
Floor
8.4
Median
16.6
Ceiling
28.9
Big game (25+):
18%
Dud (under 12):
25%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJordan LoveQB, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETLamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection17.418.2
PPR projection17.418.2
Standard projection17.418.2
Rank this weekQB12QB11
Matchupat TBvs TEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game17.320.1
Last season per game15.716.5
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value—4