Jordan LoveorLamar Jackson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson outscores Jordan Love in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jordan Love comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Lamar Jackson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Lamar Jackson projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jordan Love has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% more than average to QBs); Lamar Jackson faces the Tennessee Titans (2% more than average to QBs). Lamar Jackson still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 16.6
- Ceiling
- 27.9
- Big game (25+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 8.4
- Median
- 16.6
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jordan LoveQB, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Lamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.4 | 18.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.4 | 18.2 |
| Standard projection | 17.4 | 18.2 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB11 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.3 | 20.1 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 16.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 4 |