Geno SmithorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Michael Penix Jr. comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Geno Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Geno Smith projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (5% fewer than average to QBs); Michael Penix Jr. faces the Kansas City Chiefs (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
- Floor
- 5.2
- Median
- 10.8
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 58%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| PPR projection | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 12.9 | 11.9 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB21 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.5 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |