Drew LockorJustin Herbert?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Drew Lock in 99% of simulations.
Drew Lock comes out ahead in the other 1%. Justin Herbert projects 12.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Justin Herbert faces the Kansas City Chiefs (14% fewer than average to QBs), Drew Lock faces the Denver Broncos (10% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 0.8
- Ceiling
- 1.3
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 12.3
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drew LockQB, SEA, Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.8 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 0.8 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 0.8 | 13.0 |
| Rank this week | QB24 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at DEN | at KC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.1 | 10.7 |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |