Justin HerbertorTyler Shough?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Tyler Shough
Tyler Shough outscores Justin Herbert in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Justin Herbert comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Tyler Shough, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Shough projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Justin Herbert has the better matchup against the Denver Broncos (8% fewer than average to QBs); Tyler Shough faces the Minnesota Vikings (34% fewer than average to QBs). Tyler Shough still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 41%
- Floor
- 7.7
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Oct 11, 4:05 p.m. ET | Tyler ShoughQB, NO, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.0 | 14.7 |
| PPR projection | 14.0 | 14.7 |
| Standard projection | 14.0 | 14.7 |
| Rank this week | QB21 | QB20 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.9 | 21.3 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |