Brock PurdyorJacoby Brissett?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Jacoby Brissett in 57% of simulations.
Jacoby Brissett still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 1.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jacoby Brissett has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Seattle Seahawks (20% fewer than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 30.6
- Big game (25+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 12):
- 18%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jacoby BrissettQB, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.5 | 17.9 |
| PPR projection | 19.5 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 19.5 | 17.9 |
| Rank this week | QB4 | QB8 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 25.1 | 14.8 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 16.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 37 | — |