Jared GofforTrevor Lawrence?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Jared Goff in 64% of simulations.
Jared Goff still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Trevor Lawrence is the better bet, not a sure thing. These are their next games: Jared Goff in Week 11, Trevor Lawrence in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.3
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 25.8
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 31.8
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.3 | 20.6 |
| PPR projection | 16.3 | 20.6 |
| Standard projection | 16.3 | 20.6 |
| Rank this week | Not ranked | QB4 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.4 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 17.5 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 21 |