Jared GofforTrevor Lawrence?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence outscores Jared Goff in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jared Goff comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Trevor Lawrence, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Trevor Lawrence projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Trevor Lawrence has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the Carolina Panthers (8% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (25+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
- Floor
- 9.4
- Median
- 18.2
- Ceiling
- 30.8
- Big game (25+):
- 23%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.6 | 19.6 |
| PPR projection | 18.6 | 19.6 |
| Standard projection | 18.6 | 19.6 |
| Rank this week | QB8 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at CAR | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.9 | 17.4 |
| Last season per game | 17.5 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | 14 | 7 |