Aaron RodgersorJared Goff?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jared Goff
Jared Goff outscores Aaron Rodgers in 59% of simulations.
Aaron Rodgers still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Jared Goff is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jared Goff projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (9% more than average to QBs); Jared Goff faces the New England Patriots (2% fewer than average to QBs). Jared Goff still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.2
- Median
- 13.8
- Ceiling
- 23.4
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 26.2
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 28%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 14.8 | 16.6 |
| PPR projection | 14.9 | 16.6 |
| Standard projection | 14.8 | 16.6 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB11 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.7 | 18.4 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 17.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |