Cam WardorJustin Herbert?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Cam Ward in 62% of simulations.
Cam Ward still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Justin Herbert is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justin Herbert projects 2.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Justin Herbert has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (8% more than average to QBs); Cam Ward faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (13% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.4
- Ceiling
- 19.1
- Big game (25+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 12):
- 61%
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 44%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Cam WardQB, TEN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 11.2 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | QB25 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs JAX | at BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.6 | 10.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.0 | 17.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 79% |
| Trade value | — | — |