Malik WillisorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Michael Penix Jr.
Michael Penix Jr. outscores Malik Willis in 62% of simulations.
Malik Willis still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Michael Penix Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Michael Penix Jr. projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Michael Penix Jr. faces the Baltimore Ravens (5% more than average to QBs), Malik Willis faces the Cincinnati Bengals (7% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 22.3
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.8 | 13.8 |
| PPR projection | 11.8 | 13.8 |
| Standard projection | 11.8 | 13.8 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB19 |
| Matchup | vs CIN | vs BAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 13.3 |
| Last season per game | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |