Drake MayeorGeno Smith?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Geno Smith in 86% of simulations.
Geno Smith comes out ahead in the other 14%. Drake Maye projects 11.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Drake Maye has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (23% more than average to QBs); Geno Smith faces the Buffalo Bills (11% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 13.1
- Median
- 22.9
- Ceiling
- 37.4
- Big game (25+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 12):
- 7%
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 11.3
- Ceiling
- 21.2
- Big game (25+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 12):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 a.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 24.2 | 12.4 |
| PPR projection | 24.2 | 12.4 |
| Standard projection | 24.2 | 12.4 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB21 |
| Matchup | at DET | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.9 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | 34 | — |