Drake MayeorGeno Smith?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Drake Maye in 56% of simulations.
Drake Maye still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Geno Smith is the better bet, not a sure thing. Geno Smith projects 2.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (12% more than average to QBs); Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 40%
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 15.5 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB18 |
| Matchup | at BUF | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 17.0 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |