Aaron RodgersorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 7 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Aaron Rodgers in 55% of simulations.
Aaron Rodgers still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (5% fewer than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 14.6
- Ceiling
- 24.2
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 34%
- Floor
- 9.0
- Median
- 15.7
- Ceiling
- 25.2
- Big game (25+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 12):
- 27%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 a.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.5 | 16.4 |
| PPR projection | 15.5 | 16.5 |
| Standard projection | 15.5 | 16.4 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB10 |
| Matchup | at NO | at SEA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.5 | 18.8 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |