Bryce YoungorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Bryce Young in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Bryce Young comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Patrick Mahomes, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Patrick Mahomes projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bryce Young has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Patrick Mahomes faces the Las Vegas Raiders (3% fewer than average to QBs). Patrick Mahomes still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.9
- Median
- 18.5
- Ceiling
- 33.7
- Big game (25+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
- Floor
- 11.4
- Median
- 19.8
- Ceiling
- 31.6
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 12%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.2 | 20.7 |
| PPR projection | 20.2 | 20.7 |
| Standard projection | 20.2 | 20.7 |
| Rank this week | QB4 | QB3 |
| Matchup | vs DET | at LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 23.0 | 22.2 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | 24 |