Bryce YoungorPatrick Mahomes?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Patrick Mahomes
Patrick Mahomes outscores Bryce Young in 64% of simulations.
Bryce Young still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Patrick Mahomes is the better bet, not a sure thing. Patrick Mahomes projects 3.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Patrick Mahomes faces the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs), Bryce Young faces the New Orleans Saints (3% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 38%
- Floor
- 10.0
- Median
- 17.7
- Ceiling
- 28.9
- Big game (25+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Patrick MahomesQB, KC, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.3 | 18.6 |
| PPR projection | 15.3 | 18.6 |
| Standard projection | 15.3 | 18.6 |
| Rank this week | QB14 | QB8 |
| Matchup | at NO | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 18.3 | 17.8 |
| Last season per game | 13.6 | 20.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 94% |
| Trade value | — | 13 |