Dak PrescottorTyler Shough?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Lean Tyler Shough

Tyler Shough outscores Dak Prescott in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Dak Prescott comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Tyler Shough, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyler Shough projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Tyler Shough has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs); Dak Prescott faces the Houston Texans (11% fewer than average to QBs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dak Prescott
Floor
9.4
Median
17.5
Ceiling
29.0
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
21%
Tyler Shough
Floor
9.6
Median
17.7
Ceiling
29.2
Big game (25+):
19%
Dud (under 12):
20%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDak PrescottQB, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETTyler ShoughQB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.418.6
PPR projection18.418.6
Standard projection18.418.6
Rank this weekQB10QB9
Matchupat HOUvs ATL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game21.023.1
Last season per game18.514.4
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value156