Baker MayfieldorMalik Willis?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Malik Willis
Malik Willis outscores Baker Mayfield in 60% of simulations.
Baker Mayfield still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Malik Willis is the better bet, not a sure thing. Malik Willis projects 3.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Baker Mayfield faces the Chicago Bears (13% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 11.8
- Ceiling
- 19.9
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 51%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 14.8
- Ceiling
- 28.7
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Baker MayfieldQB, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.7 | 16.4 |
| PPR projection | 12.7 | 16.4 |
| Standard projection | 12.7 | 16.4 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB12 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.6 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | 16.0 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |