Brock PurdyorMalik Willis?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy outscores Malik Willis in 64% of simulations.
Malik Willis still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.3
- Median
- 19.3
- Ceiling
- 32.4
- Big game (25+):
- 28%
- Dud (under 12):
- 16%
- Floor
- 6.1
- Median
- 14.8
- Ceiling
- 28.7
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 37%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Brock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.5 | 16.4 |
| PPR projection | 20.5 | 16.4 |
| Standard projection | 20.5 | 16.4 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB12 |
| Matchup | vs LV | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 20.9 | 14.5 |
| Last season per game | 19.7 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | — |