Brock PurdyorMalik Willis?

Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy outscores Malik Willis in 64% of simulations.

Malik Willis still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Brock Purdy is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Purdy projects 4.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Brock Purdy faces the Las Vegas Raiders (9% more than average to QBs). Brock Purdy still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Brock Purdy
Floor
10.3
Median
19.3
Ceiling
32.4
Big game (25+):
28%
Dud (under 12):
16%
Malik Willis
Floor
6.1
Median
14.8
Ceiling
28.7
Big game (25+):
17%
Dud (under 12):
37%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

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StatBrock PurdyQB, SF, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ETMalik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection20.516.4
PPR projection20.516.4
Standard projection20.516.4
Rank this weekQB2QB12
Matchupvs LVvs DET
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game20.914.5
Last season per game19.712.8
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value17—