Geno SmithorMalik Willis?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Malik Willis in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Willis comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Geno Smith, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Geno Smith projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Malik Willis has the better matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals (7% more than average to QBs); Geno Smith faces the Cleveland Browns (9% fewer than average to QBs). Geno Smith still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 11.2
- Ceiling
- 21.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 55%
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 59%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| PPR projection | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| Standard projection | 12.4 | 11.8 |
| Rank this week | QB22 | QB23 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | vs CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 14.9 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |