Justin HerbertorMalik Willis?
Week 8 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert outscores Malik Willis in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Malik Willis comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Justin Herbert, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Malik Willis projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Justin Herbert faces the Los Angeles Rams (3% fewer than average to QBs), Malik Willis faces the New England Patriots (10% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 12.5
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (25+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 12):
- 46%
- Floor
- 4.8
- Median
- 12.1
- Ceiling
- 23.9
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Justin HerbertQB, LAC, Sun, Nov 1, 4:05 p.m. ET | Malik WillisQB, MIA, Sun, Nov 1, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| PPR projection | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| Standard projection | 13.2 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB22 |
| Matchup | at LAR | vs NE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.4 | 14.4 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 12.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |