Aaron RodgersorDaniel Jones?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers outscores Daniel Jones in 60% of simulations.
Daniel Jones still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Aaron Rodgers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Rodgers projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Aaron Rodgers has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to QBs); Daniel Jones faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (2% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.8
- Median
- 15.0
- Ceiling
- 25.4
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 32%
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron RodgersQB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Daniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.0 | 13.8 |
| PPR projection | 16.0 | 13.8 |
| Standard projection | 16.0 | 13.8 |
| Rank this week | QB15 | QB19 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at PIT |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 15.3 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 14.2 | 17.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |