Daniel JonesorSam Darnold?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Sam Darnold
Sam Darnold outscores Daniel Jones in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Daniel Jones comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Sam Darnold, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Sam Darnold projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Sam Darnold faces the San Francisco 49ers (2% fewer than average to QBs), Daniel Jones faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (2% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 21.1
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 42%
- Floor
- 6.6
- Median
- 13.9
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (25+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Daniel JonesQB, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.8 | 15.3 |
| PPR projection | 13.8 | 15.3 |
| Standard projection | 13.8 | 15.3 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at PIT | vs SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.1 | 13.8 |
| Last season per game | 17.4 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |