Lamar JacksonorTrevor Lawrence?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Lamar Jackson
Lamar Jackson outscores Trevor Lawrence in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Trevor Lawrence comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Lamar Jackson, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Lamar Jackson projects 0.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Lamar Jackson faces the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs), Trevor Lawrence faces the Philadelphia Eagles (5% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.6
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 16.3
- Ceiling
- 27.4
- Big game (25+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 12):
- 26%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Lamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Trevor LawrenceQB, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.1 | 17.5 |
| PPR projection | 18.1 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 18.1 | 17.5 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB10 |
| Matchup | at ATL | vs PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.8 | 16.3 |
| Last season per game | 16.5 | 19.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 52% | 100% |
| Trade value | 5 | 7 |