Joe BurroworLamar Jackson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Joe Burrow
Joe Burrow outscores Lamar Jackson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Lamar Jackson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Joe Burrow, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Joe Burrow projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Joe Burrow faces the Miami Dolphins (9% more than average to QBs), Lamar Jackson faces the Atlanta Falcons (2% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
- Floor
- 8.6
- Median
- 16.7
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (25+):
- 17%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Lamar JacksonQB, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 19.1 | 18.1 |
| PPR projection | 19.1 | 18.1 |
| Standard projection | 19.1 | 18.1 |
| Rank this week | QB5 | QB6 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.2 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 16.8 | 16.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 52% |
| Trade value | 8 | 5 |