Jared GofforJoe Burrow?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jared Goff
Jared Goff outscores Joe Burrow in 56% of simulations.
Joe Burrow still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jared Goff is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jared Goff projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Jared Goff faces the Arizona Cardinals (11% more than average to QBs), Joe Burrow faces the Miami Dolphins (9% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 10.9
- Median
- 19.4
- Ceiling
- 31.0
- Big game (25+):
- 27%
- Dud (under 12):
- 14%
- Floor
- 9.7
- Median
- 17.9
- Ceiling
- 29.1
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 20%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jared GoffQB, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Joe BurrowQB, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 20.5 | 19.1 |
| PPR projection | 20.5 | 19.1 |
| Standard projection | 20.5 | 19.1 |
| Rank this week | QB2 | QB5 |
| Matchup | at ARI | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 21.5 | 19.2 |
| Last season per game | 17.5 | 16.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | 16 | 8 |