Drake MayeorSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drake Maye
Drake Maye outscores Sam Darnold in 56% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Drake Maye is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drake Maye projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Drake Maye faces the Buffalo Bills (10% fewer than average to QBs), Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.2
- Median
- 13.0
- Ceiling
- 19.2
- Big game (25+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 12):
- 40%
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Drake MayeQB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 13.4 | 13.0 |
| Rank this week | QB20 | QB22 |
| Matchup | at BUF | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 20.7 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 81% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |