Geno SmithorSam Darnold?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Geno Smith
Geno Smith outscores Sam Darnold in 61% of simulations.
Sam Darnold still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Geno Smith is the better bet, not a sure thing. Geno Smith projects 2.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Geno Smith has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (12% more than average to QBs); Sam Darnold faces the Los Angeles Chargers (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.2
- Median
- 14.0
- Ceiling
- 26.9
- Big game (25+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 12):
- 39%
- Floor
- 4.9
- Median
- 11.5
- Ceiling
- 23.0
- Big game (25+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 12):
- 52%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam DarnoldQB, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.5 | 13.0 |
| PPR projection | 15.5 | 13.0 |
| Standard projection | 15.5 | 13.0 |
| Rank this week | QB18 | QB22 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.0 | 14.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 13.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |