Bo NixorJameis Winston?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Bo Nix
Bo Nix outscores Jameis Winston in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jameis Winston comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Bo Nix, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jameis Winston projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Jameis Winston has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs); Bo Nix faces the Seattle Seahawks (18% fewer than average to QBs). Bo Nix still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.5
- Median
- 12.8
- Ceiling
- 22.0
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 45%
- Floor
- 5.3
- Median
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Bo NixQB, DEN, Thu, Oct 15, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jameis WinstonQB, NYG, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Standard projection | 13.7 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | QB19 | QB17 |
| Matchup | vs SEA | vs NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.0 | 13.1 |
| Last season per game | 17.9 | 14.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 94% |
| Trade value | — | — |