Geno SmithorJameis Winston?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jameis Winston
Jameis Winston outscores Geno Smith in 59% of simulations.
Geno Smith still comes out ahead in the other 41%, so Jameis Winston is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jameis Winston projects 2.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Jameis Winston faces the New Orleans Saints (9% fewer than average to QBs), Geno Smith faces the New England Patriots (12% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 4.7
- Median
- 10.7
- Ceiling
- 20.5
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 58%
- Floor
- 5.3
- Median
- 12.4
- Ceiling
- 24.6
- Big game (25+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 12):
- 47%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Geno SmithQB, NYJ, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jameis WinstonQB, NYG, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.8 | 14.0 |
| PPR projection | 11.8 | 14.0 |
| Standard projection | 11.8 | 14.0 |
| Rank this week | QB23 | QB19 |
| Matchup | at NE | vs NO |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 13.9 | 13.1 |
| Last season per game | 11.6 | 14.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 94% |
| Trade value | — | — |