Bryce YoungorJosh Allen?

Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.

Our call

Start Josh Allen

Josh Allen outscores Bryce Young in 62% of simulations.

Bryce Young still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Josh Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Allen projects 3.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Bryce Young has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (29% more than average to QBs); Josh Allen faces the New England Patriots (15% fewer than average to QBs). Josh Allen still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Bryce Young
Floor
8.9
Median
18.5
Ceiling
33.7
Big game (25+):
26%
Dud (under 12):
22%
Josh Allen
Floor
11.9
Median
22.2
Ceiling
37.3
Big game (25+):
39%
Dud (under 12):
10%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatBryce YoungQB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ETJosh AllenQB, BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection20.223.9
PPR projection20.224.0
Standard projection20.223.8
Rank this weekQB4QB1
Matchupvs DETvs NE
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game23.031.2
Last season per game13.622.8
Snap share, last game100%100%
Trade value—58