C.J. StroudorMichael Penix Jr.?
Week 6 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start C.J. Stroud
C.J. Stroud outscores Michael Penix Jr. in 58% of simulations.
Michael Penix Jr. still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so C.J. Stroud is the better bet, not a sure thing. C.J. Stroud projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Michael Penix Jr. has the better matchup against the Chicago Bears (7% more than average to QBs); C.J. Stroud faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (8% fewer than average to QBs). C.J. Stroud still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.6
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 24.0
- Big game (25+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 12):
- 30%
- Floor
- 6.9
- Median
- 13.2
- Ceiling
- 22.6
- Big game (25+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 12):
- 42%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | C.J. StroudQB, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET | Michael Penix Jr.QB, ATL, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 15.9 | 14.1 |
| PPR projection | 15.9 | 14.1 |
| Standard projection | 15.9 | 14.1 |
| Rank this week | QB12 | QB16 |
| Matchup | at JAX | vs CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.8 | 13.7 |
| Last season per game | 14.9 | 13.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 95% |
| Trade value | — | — |