Davis MillsorMarcus Mariota?
Week 10 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Marcus Mariota
Marcus Mariota outscores Davis Mills in 76% of simulations.
Davis Mills comes out ahead in the other 24%. Marcus Mariota projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Marcus Mariota has the better matchup against the New York Giants (13% more than average to QBs); Davis Mills faces the Cleveland Browns (16% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.3
- Ceiling
- 0.8
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 0.6
- Ceiling
- 1.2
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Davis MillsQB, HOU, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Marcus MariotaQB, WAS, Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Standard projection | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| Rank this week | QB35 | QB26 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 0.1 | 11.5 |
| Last season per game | 11.4 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 11% | 16% |
| Trade value | — | — |