Germie BernardorMitchell Tinsley?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Germie Bernard
Germie Bernard outscores Mitchell Tinsley in 55% of simulations.
Mitchell Tinsley still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Germie Bernard is the better bet, not a sure thing. Germie Bernard projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Germie Bernard faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs), Mitchell Tinsley faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Mitchell Tinsley is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 3.1
- Ceiling
- 6.4
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 87%
- Floor
- 0.6
- Median
- 2.6
- Ceiling
- 7.1
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 84%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Germie BernardWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mitchell TinsleyWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 3.5 | 3.4 |
| PPR projection | 4.6 | 3.9 |
| Standard projection | 2.3 | 2.9 |
| Rank this week | WR105 | WR107 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 3.7 | — |
| Last season per game | — | 3.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 27% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |