Kaelon BlackorZavier Scott?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kaelon Black
Kaelon Black outscores Zavier Scott in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Zavier Scott comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Kaelon Black, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Zavier Scott projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Zavier Scott has the better matchup against the Green Bay Packers (11% more than average to RBs); Kaelon Black faces the Seattle Seahawks (16% fewer than average to RBs). Kaelon Black still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Zavier Scott is the pick at 53%; in Standard leagues, Kaelon Black wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 2.2
- Ceiling
- 4.9
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 95%
- Floor
- 0.3
- Median
- 2.1
- Ceiling
- 7.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 86%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Kaelon BlackRB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Zavier ScottRB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 2.6 | 3.1 |
| PPR projection | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| Standard projection | 2.5 | 2.4 |
| Rank this week | RB54 | RB52 |
| Matchup | at SEA | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 3.3 | — |
| Last season per game | — | 2.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 26% | — |
| Trade value | — | — |